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Archive for August, 2007

Why a Running Quarterback Will Never Win A Super Bowl (Pt 2)

August 28, 2007 By: Brainiac Category: Brainiac No Comments →

THE HISTORY & PRODUCTION OF THE “RUNNING QUARTERBACK”

running-quarterbacks-michael-vick-donovan-mcnabb-vince-young-daunte-culpepper-randall-cunninghamWith all the man love that players such as Vince Young, Michael Vick and others have received over the years, Brainiac has been very intrigued at the success rate of these types of quarterbacks, and others like them. But first, when did all of this racket start, anyhow? Who is to blame for the viral-like attraction we seem to have for these QBs?

THE FIRST RUNNING QUARTERBACK

Ah, yes. I remember it well. The year was 1985. The air was turning cool; the leaves were beginning to change colors; a young man’s thoughts tend to wander to football (among other things). That was the year the first definitive “Running Quarterback” came on the scene.

His name was Randall Cunningham.
  
Well, actually, it was 1987 when Cunningham became the starter for the Philadelphia Eagles. If you don’t remember, this guy was a big deal back in the day. It seemed he could do anything: Run. Pass. Run. Scramble. Run. Make big plays. Did I mention he could run?

THE TREND CATCHES ON

The “Running Quarterback” phenomenon didn’t really take off around the rest of the NFL, though, until the late nineties. It was 1997 - a full ten years after Cunningham took the field - when Kordell Stewart became the quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Steve McNair started for the old Tennessee Oilers. McNair was the lead rushing QB that season and Stewart led the Steelers to the AFC Championship Game. All looked promising for this new age quarterback.

NEW SUPERSTARS

Donovan McNabb of the Eagles and Daunte Culpepper of the Vikings became the newest  “Running Quarterback” sensations. They remained at the top of the heap from 2000-2004, respectively. Their talent was enough to make both teams playoff contenders.

Then, in 2002, Michael Vick made his much anticipated entry into the NFL with his astounding ability. In 2006, Vince Young made his debut. And it appears that these two seem to have taken the role of the “Running Quarterback” to a whole new level. In fact, that’s what media has propogated. They are looking for superhero QBs. I have dubbed Vince Young “Superman” because of the Sports Illustrated cover calling him exactly that.  

“RUNNING QUARTERBACK” PRODUCTION

Too often, with all of the attention “Running Quarterbacks” generate, few people actually look at the production of these players, especially in comparison to traditional quarterbacks. Let’s take a look at the productivity of these “Running Quarterbacks” and why, though they may look good in the highlight reels, have not been consistent winners and will never win a Super Bowl.

Brainiac believes the chart below speaks for itself. It shows the true output of these quarterbacks over their career by comparing their quarterback rating and completion percentage to other NFL QBs over the last three seasons (minimum 140 attempts).

QB Rushing Leader Career Passer Rtg Career Compl Pct
Avg QB (last 3 yrs) 81.6 58.3
Avg Playoff QB (last 3 yrs) 90.1 61.9
Randall Cunningham 1987-1990, 1992 81.5 56.6
Jeff Blake 1995 & 1999 78.0 56.4
Kordell Stewart 1997-1998, 2000 70.0 55.8
Steve McNair 1997-2002 83.1 60.1
Donovan McNabb 1999-2004 85.6 58.4
Daunte Culpepper 2000-2001, 2003 90.0 63.8
Aaron Brooks 2001 77.5 56.5
Michael Vick 2002-2006 75.8 53.8
Vince Young 2006 66.6 54.2

Comparing the career rating of a “Running Quarterback” to the average quarterback rating over the last three years, you can see that McNair, McNabb and Culpepper beat the average. However consider these variables:

  • Daunte Culpepper has not had a rating over 77.0 since 2004 (or after Randy Moss left the Vikings)
  • Steve McNair has been hampered by injuries and been forced to stay in the pocket longer.
  • Donovan McNabb has been developed by Andy Reid into more of a “Pocket Passer” since 2003.

When you compare the QB Rating of playoff quarterbacks to “Running Quarterbacks”, it becomes even more revealing. Over the last three years, the starting quarterbacks on the six teams that played in the Super Bowl had an average quarterback rating of 93.5 (and that includes Rex Grossman). In fact, over the past 10 years the starting quarterback on each of the teams that played in the Super Bowl had an average quarterback rating of 92.0. Of the past 10 Super Bowl winners, only one of them had a starting quarterback who’s QB rating was lower than 85.9 (Trent Dilfer of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens).

Comparing the completion percentages of “Running Quarterbacks” to the average completion percentage of playoff quarterbacks over the last three seasons, McNair and Culpepper are the only ones to beat it. However, Culpepper has not made the playoffs since his QB rating dipped, leaving Steve McNair as the only truly efficient “Running Quarterback” of the lot. And, actually, many argue (including Brainiac, here) that he is wrongly categorized and should be considered as a “Scrambling Quarterback”.

So you can see that, for all their running ability, these “Running Quarterbacks” have been largely inefficient at their game. We can safely assume that a quarterback that can run means very little if he can’t throw with accuracy and consistency!

But why is the production of “Running Quarterbacks” so poor? In part three, we’ll delve a little deeper and take a look at the key factors that contribute to their sub-par performances.

Why a Running Quarterback Will Never Win A Super Bowl (Pt 1)

August 14, 2007 By: Brainiac Category: Brainiac No Comments →

running-quarterbacks-michael-vick-donovan-mcnabb-vince-young-daunte-culpepper“Baby, we were born to run!”
- Bruce Springstein

When it comes to the topic of running quarterbacks, much has been discussed on television, radio and the internet. It’s a real hullabaloo!

You know who they are (no matter how much they may despise or deny the title). Vince Young, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper and Michael Vick are the most famous among them. They are exciting, game-changing quarterbacks who have grown on football fans like a colony of E-coli on room temperature beef.

But there’s a dark side to these nimble-legged field generals. We’ve all heard the theory that “Running Quarterbacks” don’t win championships. As the saying goes, “you’ve got to have a traditional, sit-in-the-pocket type of quarterback if you want to be successful.” It’s also interesting to note that only 15% of NFL teams started these types of quarterbacks at the peak of their popularity.

This post is the first of a four-part series that will aim to solidify the argument that the “Running Quarterback” is, overall, ineffective and will never win a world championship.


DEFINING QUARTERBACK STYLE

There are three different types of quarterbacks we will be discussing in these posts. To completely understand this style of quarterback, it is important to define each of these QBs so that it will be easier to compare them. They are:

  • The “Pocket Passer”

  • The “Scrambling Quarterback”

  • The “Running Quarterback”

A “Pocket Passer” is the traditional type of quarterback who drops back, scans the defense, steps up in the pocket when necessary, and finds the best target to throw the ball to. His objective is to get rid of the ball as soon as possible and throw it accurately. Quarterbacks of this sort are the Dan Marinos, Drew Bledsoes and Tom Bradys of the NFL. They may be able to move around in the pocket a bit or run for a first down, but it’s not their forte.

A “Scrambling Quarterback” is one who can move around in and out of the pocket to give his receivers more time to get open so that the play called can be accomplished successfully. It’s more of a “complete the play first and, if you can’t, then try to make a play out of it” mentality. Characteristics of this kind of QB include the ability to feel when defenders are near, the knack to elude would-be tacklers, and the capability to run for positive yardage when the opportunity presents itself. The scrambling quarterback takes off running when all other options have failed or there is a tremendous amount of yardage available to him. Think John Elway, Steve Young or Jeff Garcia and you’ll get the right idea.

A “Running Quarterback”, is very similar to the “Scrambling Quarterback” in many ways. This quarterback can feel when defenders are near and elude tacklers just as well, if not better than, a “Scrambling Quarterback”. The fundamental difference between these two QBs is that when a “Running Quarterback” tries to complete a play, instead of checking down to his second and third receivers like a “Pocket Passer” or even a “Scrambling Quarterback” does, he takes matters into his own hands. All too often, he tucks the ball and runs with it. He consistently searches for opportunities to create big plays himself as soon as his first option is taken away (if not sooner) and run with it, hence the term “Running Quarterback”.

In part two, we’ll head to the Way-Back Machine and take a look at the history and production of “Running Quarterbacks”. That’s right, folks, we’re edumacational ‘round here!