Football Brainiac

Pittsburgh’s regular season finale in Baltimore is nothing like the schedule makers dreamed it would be when they put this together in April. Instead of a battle for the division title, the Ravens are on a 9 game losing streak and have lost just about all of their stars to injuries while the Steelers look to possibly rest some of their starters in preparation for the playoffs. What will the Black n’ Gold have to do to win this week’s game?

When the Steelers Have the Ball
For the Steelers offense, this game will be their one game trial of the “running back by committee” game plan. Najeh Davenport and Gary Russell look to split the majority of the carries this week, but don’t be surprised if you see the newly acquired Verron Haynes in third down situations. The Ravens have given the Steelers running game fits over the last few meetings and, regardless of their record, Baltimore is still extremely good against the run. This game will be a good test for the new Steelers rushing attack.

No matter who the QB is for the Steelers, Ben or Charlie Batch, Pittsburgh should be able to produce a repeat performance from their last meeting. The Ravens secondary is still depleted and inexperienced (with the exception of Ed Reed) and they should be vulnerable to the deep pass once again.

That said, we all know the Ravens are going to attack the quarterback. With Marvel Smith out again (and possibly out for the playoffs, too) the offensive line will be tested. Bruce Arians needs to keep another man in to protect Ben/Charlie. Haynes was a very effective pass blocker in seasons past for the Steelers and I think we’ll see him in these situations Sunday.

I have always felt that against a team like the Ravens you need to pass to set up the run. Short passes (out patterns, swing passes, slants, etc.) should be a good recipe to keep the Ravens back a bit which will set up Najeh/Gary/Carey/Verron to get some extra yards on the ground.

While injuries abound on their defense and the Ravens are on their longest losing streak in team history, don’t think for a minute that this team will not be pumped for this game. The Steelers exploited their pass defense in their last meeting and it served as a blueprint for all the other blowout losses the Ravens have experienced since. And don’t forget that “cheap shot” Hines Ward made. You know the Baltimore defense would like nothing more than to exact its revenge on the Steelers this Sunday.

When the Ravens Have the Ball
Wow! Has this offense been terrible this year or what? They have only scored 21 points or more in 3 of their 15 games so far and they’ve lost even more of their weapons last week against the Seahawks.

Troy Smith looks to be the starter for only his second NFL game Sunday. His inexperience should play right into the Steelers hands. Expect them to try and get some pressure (hey, maybe even a sack or two!) and force Smith to make mistakes.
Todd Heap, and just about every other tight end on the Ravens roster is out so Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton will get most of the defense’s attention. In their previous meeting, Steve McNair never tried to throw the ball downfield and it helped the Steelers defense immensely. When Boller took over in the second half, he was a bit more vertical. I don’t see a whole lot of that this week, though, with the rookie at the helm. Expect a lot of short passes from the Ravens this week.

Baltimore lost Willis McGahee for the season with some broken ribs so who will be the Ravens feature back against Pittsburgh? Mike Anderson seems to be the guy, but he’s nursing a thigh injury so we may see more of Musa Smith than anyone ever has. Anderson is faster than Smith, but both can pound the ball between the tackles. Either way, it will be a good barometer for the Aaron Smith-less defensive line.

With Pittsburgh likely to be sitting a lot of ailing defensive players (Polamalu, Taylor, etc.), this will also be a good barometer of the depth the Steelers have on defense. But if they do rest players, don’t get too shocked if the Ravens offense puts a couple TDs on the board. I still can’t see it being a whole lot, though.

Special Teams
As always, you gotta wonder about the Steelers kick coverage. This week, they face another good return man in Yamon Figurs. He already has a punt and a kick retuned for a TD. Another good test for Pittsburgh heading into the playoffs.

Final Thoughts
You may have noticed that I used the word “test” a lot in this post. That’s exactly the purpose I think this game serves for Pittsburgh. How will the pass protection perform? What’s combination is going to work best for the new running game? Is the defense getting pressure on the quarterback? Can they still stop the run? What about kick coverage? All these questions can be addressed in a game that has little meaning in the grand scheme of things. If I was Mike Tomlin, I would seriously take advantage of that.

We know this is going to be a tough, physical game because that’s Baltimore’s thing. So when you know you have a physical game coming up against Jacksonville next week, why risk your players to injury? We all know the Jags will be resting their starters and it’s not like Pittsburgh has a first round bye and would have two weeks rest to get rusty. Let ‘em sit and get some rest. Maybe play them for a quarter or even the first half, but don’t risk jeopardizing your season.

What do you think? Am I right, here? Should Mike Tomlin rest his players or should he play for that practically impossible #3 seed?

Unless you were living under a rock last weekend, you know by now the Steelers have won the AFC North. They head into this week’s game against the Ravens with some questions, though, particularly at running back.

Since the season-ending injury to Willie Parker last Thursday, the million dollar question is will Najeh Davenport, Cary Davis, Gary Russell (and now Verron Haynes) be able to collectively produce enough for the Steelers to progress into the playoffs? Or will the ground game sputter forcing the Steelers to be a one-dimensional team? Oh, the drama of it all!

One and Done?
In his article following the Steelers win over St. Louis, ESPN columnist John Clayton seemed to echo what many people are thinking - the Steelers are done for.

In all honesty, unless you’re a Steelers junkie like some of us, the casual fan would probably think so, too. After all, not too many teams can recover from the loss of an NFL leading, Pro Bowl back during the playoffs. Not to mention, that everyone knows the Steelers are a running team. That’s how they win their games, right?

Everytime the Steelers play, it seems you see some graphic about how if Ben throws a certain amount of passes, the Steelers usually lose. Conversely, they’ll show the same kind of graphic about how good the Steelers winning percentage is when Parker runs for 100 yards or more. Blah blah blah blah blah.

I know that I’m “Statistic Man” and I’m supposed to be all about stats, but…

Not So Fast There, Compadre
This season the data tells us something a bit different, though. Through 15 games, the Steelers have run the ball 477 times and thrown 406 times. By the way, those rushes include the 28 times Ben scrambled after actually dropping back to pass.

So actually, the Steelers Run/Pass Ratio so far this season is 52% to 48%. That’s pretty balanced, my friend.

Then, you also need to consider these stats:

• Ben’s completion percentage is 65.3% (6th best)
• His average completion is 7.8 yards (4th best)
• His first down percentage is 41.6% (2nd best)

Hmmmm….

This is Ben’s Team
At this point, the light should be going off in your head. In previous seasons, the Steelers went the way Jerome Bettis went. Last year we started to see a shift and this year it’s obvious: The Pittsburgh Steelers go the way Ben Roethlisberger goes!

It’s true that the Steelers still need to run the ball effectively to win, but when the rubber meets the road, it’s on Ben’s shoulders. And I don’t think he’d have it any other way.

The last couple weeks have been pretty trying for us Steelers fans, hasn’t it? I remember when my Steelers were 9-3, two games ahead in their division and getting ready to show the New England Patriots that they are beatable. Yessir, I was on the precipice of elation. I was so excited I could hardly contain myself.

Then on December 9th at about 5:45pm, it all started going to hell. The Patriots ripped through the Steelers defense like a WWE wrestler’s pecs poke through his three-sizes-too-small-shirt.

“No worries,” I thought, “They’ll bounce back next week against Jacksonville.” But, alas, my world seemed to come crashing down around me as the Jaguars running backs pounded the Steelers causing them to lose two straight and put my euphoric hopes of postseason glory in serious jeopardy.

DEJA VU?
As we all began to doubt the Steelers ability to hang with the best of them, it occurred to me, “I’ve seen this before!”

The year was 2005. The Steelers were 7-2 and in a tight race for the division title with another Ohio team. They were preparing for a tough four game stretch against Baltimore, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Chicago. The Steelers needed to show that they were a legitimate team with Ben Roethlisberger at the helm because, even though they had a great record, they had lost games to playoff teams (NE and JAX). In fact, they had only beaten three teams with winning records (SD, CIN and BAL). This was the perfect group of games to really show what they were made of. And, besides, it was November/December. The Steelers always play tough late in the season. If they could win these, they would prove they were an “elite” team.

In a span of three weeks they lost to the Ravens, got embarrassed on national television by the best team in the NFL (Colts), and lost at home to the playoff-bound Bengals. It was that fast. The Steelers went from 7-2 to 7-5, trailed the Bengals for the division title and found themselves at a serious crossroads.

Fans and media alike criticized everything from Bill Cowher and the defense that gave up big plays to the play calling and the lack of a running game. Pretty much everyone (including myself) figured that the Steelers would make the playoffs, but not do much better than that. There were just too many holes in the team and they were not going in the right direction at the most critical time of the season.

Then the Steelers put together four straight wins to end the season - two pretty convincing wins against Chicago and Cleveland, but eked out two games they “should have won big” against Minnesota and Detroit. Nevertheless, they made the playoffs as the #6 seed with an 11-5 record. The rest is NFL history. The team everyone pretty much left for dead got their act together in time and won the Super Bowl beating what many people thought was a lock for the championship along the way.

Sound familiar?

DEJA VU (Part 2)
For those of you who think that this kind of “Cinderella story” only happens every so often, let me remind you that the 2006 Indianapolis Colts went through the same thing last season.

After starting 9-0, the Colts lost four of their next seven games. Ironically, they also lost to teams “they should have beaten” like Houston and Tennessee. They also gave up over 300 yards rushing in their loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Everyone said that this team wouldn’t make it to the Super Bowl because they couldn’t stop the run. That Jaguar game was not a fluke, either. The Colts defense couldn’t stop anybody on the ground last year.

Well, as we all know, the Colts got their act together in time as well. They virtually eliminated their opponents running game in all three playoff games and the Super Bowl as they won their first title since Super Bowl V.

IT CAN HAPPEN AGAIN
I know that all the “experts” say a team has to peak in December. While there is an element of truth to that, it’s not absolute. Getting into the playoffs is the first step. The Steelers accomplished that this week. So be encouraged, Steelers fans, we’ve made it to the dance. We’ve been through this before and we can do it again. You may think it’s too hard to do, but hey, this is Pittsburgh. Nothing ever comes to us easy!