Football Brainiac

Each week, Statistic Man combs the deep and mysterious recesses of NFL data to bring you significant Steelers stats.

Turnovers. They’re a real killer, aren’t they? Is there anything in the game of football that can change the outcome of a game faster? How many times have you watched a team totally control their opponent only to turn the ball over a couple times and end up on the short end of the stick when the clock reaches zero? That’s why the ancient ones included turnovers in the Incontrovertible Laws of Football. You’ve got to hold on to the ball!

The fact is that turnovers are not only the difference in a game, but they can also be the difference in a season, too.

Last year’s Pittsburgh-Oakland game is a perfect example. By all rights, the Steelers should have blown away Oakland, but four Ben Roethlisberger interceptions (two returned for a TDs) wound up being the difference in the game. Losing that game alone put the Steelers at 8-8.

Had they turned the ball over just one time less, they would have probably been victorious and finished 9-7. Pittsburgh would have also made the playoffs with that record as a wild card and who knows what could have happened from there? And that’s just using one of those terrible games last season as an example. How many more games could have been won without a turnover?

I know, it’s useless talking about what would have happened if certain circumstances had been different. After all, it is what it is right? But it’s obvious that, although not the only factor in a game, turnovers can significantly impact a team’s fortunes one way or the other.

Just look how teams are faring this season. Through 14 games, here’s a look at the NFL turnover ratio. Teams that are headed to the playoffs or that are in contention are in blue. The Steelers are in gold. And, yes, Carolinia is still in it.

As you can see, practically all of the teams in the top half of the turnover ratio are either going to the playoffs or are still alive in the chase. The combined winning percentage of the teams in the top 5 is .756 and all of them have won their division. Obviously, creating turnovers on defense and controlling the ball on offense has helped them.

The Vikings are a perfect example of an opportunistic team that has taken advantage of turnovers and will probably make the playoffs because of it. Conversely, the Giants are the only team on the bottom half of the table that will probably make the playoffs.

The Steelers rank 12th in turnover ratio. Not too good, but not too bad either. Ranking near the middle of the pack doesn’t necessarily mean you’re doomed to mediocrity, but it doesn’t make things easier on yourself either.

To make an educated assumption at the power of turnovers, though, you have to take into account the other end of the spectrum. And boy does it ever reveal the truth. The bottom five teams combine for a winning percentage of .286. That’s almost three times less than the top tier. Ouch!

It’s obvious that teams that go far into the postseason are more opportunistic on defense and are more careful with the ball on offense. Offensively, Pittsburgh has handled the ball pretty well. The number of interceptions and fumbles aren’t alarmingly big. But if the Steelers want to make a run, they need to create more turnovers on defense. Who knows? Maybe this week they’ll get that aspect of their game going. If not, they might want to start working on that pretty soon don’t you think?