Football Brainiac

There’s been quite a bru-ha-ha over the lack of urgency Mike Tomlin and Kevin Colbert seem to be showing on behalf of the Steelers offensive and defensive line this offseason - especially the offensive line. While it’s probably true that Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed are valuable weapons that will help the overall offensive arsenal, lots of people are worried that Big Ben will get pummeled this year since there seems to be very little attention given to improving the offensive line. A line that gave up a whopping 96 sacks over 2 years.

Riding that bandwagon as far as they could, all the “experts” have proclaimed for months that the Steelers have to protect Ben better. Specifically, what they meant was that Pittsburgh had to get an offensive lineman in the first round and they had to resign Alan Faneca.

Well, they did neither. All of this has lead me to wonder whether everyone is right and the Steelers front office is really neglecting the obvious or, perhaps, do the Steelers know something we don’t?

Let’s look at free agency. If Pittsburgh isn’t willing to plop down millions to retain Alan Faneca, who could the Steelers have acquired with marginal skill and less wear and tear for a lower price? There are plenty to choose from (still are, too). The Steelers signed Justin Hartwig who will battle for the starting Center position with Sean Mahan (last year’s OL free agent acquisition), but could also be utilized as a guard. AND THAT WAS ALL THEY DID! If the Steelers were desperate they could still pick up any number of players to play on the line. At last count, I saw 48 offensive linemen who were not picked up in free agency by other teams. They’re obviously not desperate, and besides, free agency is just not how Pittsburgh operates.

Now, let’s take a look at the draft. In the first round alone, 7 of the 22 picks before Pittsburgh were offensive linemen (and, by the way, 5 of the remaining 15 were defensive linemen). Many pundits felt that this was a particularly ripe draft for offensive linemen, but that’s a lot of “A” linemen to be taken before the Steelers even had a chance to pick. In fact, only 3 offensive linemen were taken over the next 43 picks! That’s quite a drop off, wouldn’t you say?

In my opinion, the Steelers had to know most of these guys were going to be taken before #23, and you can’t possibly think that this team will act like Cleveland did last year and trade half of their choices away for 1 lineman. This team, like or not, builds through the draft. They want as many picks as they can possibly have.

In addition, the Steelers waited until the 4th round to take an offensive lineman. This tells me that the Steelers front office does not think their offensive line is as bad as we all may have made it out to be. Could this be true?

Below is a table that shows the Steelers starting offensive line since Ben Roethlisberger took over as QB year-by-year. New starters are highlighted in yellow.

Not much of a change to this line over the years is there? 2007 saw two new lineman start (Mahan and Colon). Yes Ben was sacked more in the last two years, but the Steelers average yards per rush play improved overall. So what’s causing the sharp decline in the line’s production?

I mentioned at the end of the season that “the only major changes since their Super Bowl season is the loss of two players: Bettis and Hartings (and, yes, the addition of Colon to the starting lineup). Could it be that Bettis’ running style masked a lot of issues with this line? He was able to push the pile so much without a whole lot of help from the line. Maybe they weren’t that powerful to begin with and now it’s been exposed.”

I’m not saying the line isn’t any good, but I tend to think that perhaps their pass blocking hasn’t been all that terrific. Hence, why Ben has to constantly play on the run.

So what can Mike Tomlin and Bruce Arians do? Here’s my 2 part solution:

#1) Hopefully, with the new addition of Mendenhall, his style of running will keep opposing defenses more honest. The Steelers may not have to pass on 3rd and 3 (or shorter) as much as they did last season. Utilize him in tandem with FWP and we should see these stats improve.

#2) With this stockpile of tight ends that Pittsburgh has, couldn’t they keep one of them in to help with blocking support in obvious passing situations to help ease the pressure off of Ben?

Now that I’ve had more tiime to look and think about it, I’m just not so sure that the play of the offensive line was as bad as we all made it out to be. Sure, pass protection was abysmal, but if they do these two things, I think the offense can really keep opposing defenses on their toes.

What do you guys think? Any other suggestions? Let’s hear ‘em!

Every year, with the announcement of the NFL’s 2008 regular season schedule, there’s always one thing you can count on: fan’s outrage over the injustice of their favorite team’s schedule. Cripes! Even our Ranting Slovak started the year with this.

While there may be a tad bit of justification for apparent injustices, I dare say this dribble is WAY overrated. Each team has to play 16 games. They gotta play somebody and they can’t all be the Dolphins so why don’t we stop whining and get ready to play.

At the same time, though, who you play obviously matters. Blitzburgh over at Behind the Steel Curtain makes a good point about this. The 2006 Jets are just one example given in that post. Easy shcedule = make the playoffs. I’m also reminded of last year’s Browns who were lucky enough to have .430 schedule (and, oh by the way, still missed the postseason).

To further add fuel to flame, ESPN’s John Clayton even wrote an article the other day that proves the Steelers have a doozy of a schedule. Their opponents’ winning percentage is .598. That’s apparently one of the toughest in NFL history. He also claims that playing these caliber teams can really wear a team down to the point they finally break.

And, to be honest, this very well may be the case for Pittsburgh (or any of the AFC North for that matter). Especially when you consider how the Steelers finished last year. Could they start out of the gate strong again and then just get tired about half way through the season? These are legitimate concerns, but I think the Steelers will hold up better than some fear.

In today’s NFL, if you can win all of your home games and your divisional games, you’re going to have a more significant chance of making the playoffs. If the Steelers are able to do just that and no more, their record would be 11-5. Which in most any season should get you in the playoffs. But can they do that?

Listed below were my initial thoughts when I looked at the Steelers schedule. Call it my “Preseason Prediction”, if you will. But I think it has a lot of merit. Ah, to be a football fan. This is what makes the offseason so much fun, right?

1. Houston: This is a game the Steelers should win. The Texans are getting better, but they’re not at the level Pittsburgh is at.   Win [1-0]
2. @ Cleveland: This one may be tough, but am I the only one that thinks the Browns, when faced with a tougher schedule, will fall apart under the pressure? This may not be the case by Week #2, but it just seems that Ben owns this team, doesn’t it? Win [2-0]
3. @ Philadelphia: This is a totally different team when Donovan McNabb is playing. I just don’t think the Eagles are as much of a threat as they’ve been in the past, though. They’re getting a bit long in the teeth.   Win [3-0]
4. Baltimore: We said it last season, the terror the Ravens have imposed on Pittsburgh ended last October. Too bad Steve McNair won’t be playing in this one, too!  Win [4-0]
5. @ Jacksonville: We just can’t get away from these guys can we? The Jaguars have always given the Steelers fits. There’s just some teams who have a mental & psychological edge over you. I think the Steelers will try to avenge last year’s losses, but the outcome will sadly be the same.   Loss [4-1]
6. Bye Week. Pittsburgh stands at 4-1 (gee, that sounds familiar)
7. @ Cincinnati: Without an O-Line, Chad Johnson or Chris Henry, it could be another loooong year for Carson Palmer.   Win [5-1]
8. New York Giants: Don’t get me wrong, the Giants earned that Super Bowl last year, and nothing gave me greater pleasure than seeing them upset the Pats. But I just don’t think this team will be that good in 2008.   Win [6-1]
9. @ Washington (MNF): This should be a good game, but I don’t know if Jim Zorn will have this team playing like a real winner in ‘08.   Win [7-1]
10. Indianapolis: The Steelers always play the Colts tough at home (and usually win, too). But because they will probably have two losses by now.   Loss [7-2]
11. San Diego: Two straight home games against playoff-caliber teams. The bad news here is the Chargers get to play at 4:15 instead of 1pm. I still think the Steelers win this, though.   Win [8-2]
12. Cincinnati: A third straight home game will certainly help keep our boys rested (somewhat) considering this is a Thursday nighter. A season sweep of the Bungles will put the Steelers in a good position (especially since the Patriots will probably be 11-0 by now). Win [9-2]
13. @ New England: The Steelers will have 10 days to prepare for this one. Will it be enough? I don’t think so, but it should be closer than last year’s debacle. Loss [9-3]
14. Dallas: Pittsburgh hardly ever plays the Cowboys at home. In fact, I half thought the schedule makers would have made this a Thanksgiving game (thank God they didn’t). In my opinion, the Cowboys are vastly overrated. Wade Phillips will probably end up losing his job after this season. Besides, I’d love to see Jerry Jones scowling on the sidelines at Heinz Field. Win [10-3]
15. @ Baltimore: Another season sweep of a division rival. Win [11-3]
16. @ Tennessee: I’m thinking that at this point, the Sterelers will have wrapped up the AFC North. And with losses to Indy and the Pats putting Pittsburgh out of the hunt for a bye week in the playoffs, I’d be surprised to see starters on the field. Loss [11-4]
17. Cleveland: You can’t honestly expect me to think the Browns will ever beat the Steelers, can you? Win [12-4]

So what do you think? Are the Steelers really a 12-4 team this year (no matter who they pick up in the draft)? Are the Giants, Eagles & Cowboys all as overrated as I’m making them out to be? Will the Browns fold under the pressure of a tougher schedule? And waht about the Chargers? I’d lover to hear your thoughts.

In our ongoing review of the 2007 season, Football Brainiac will be taking a look at the statistics that matter most to NFL coaches.

It goes without saying that the longer your offense has possession of the ball, two things are more likely to happen:

1. Your team has a better chance of scoring
2. The opposition has a more reduced chance of scoring

So how did the 2007 Steelers fare when it comes to controlling the clock? We’re going to take a look at two different categories when it comes to possession. The first is time of possession (duh) and the second is 3rd down conversion percentage.

TIME OF POSSESSION
The 2007 Steelers offense average time of possession in a game was 33:18. That was good enough to be the best in the NFL this year!

In fact, the average among the other playoff teams this year was only 30:56. So the Steelers were able to hold on to the ball almost 3 minutes more than this year’s postseason contenders. What’s more impressive is that the league average was 29:01. That over 4 minutes more!

There’s only one way you’re able to keep the ball that much longer than your opponent, though: converting on third down.

3rd DOWN CONVERSION PERCENTAGE
Something that many people may not have known this year is that Ben and the offense was good at converting 3rd Downs - really good! Pittsburgh ranked 3rd in the NFL behind Indianapolis and New England. The table below shows just how good the Steelers were this year converting on 3rd Down this year. It compares them to the previous two seasons as well as the NFL playoff teams’ average each of the past three years.

What really stands out to me is that the Steelers offense has improved dramatically in this category each year as Ben continues to mature. This year’s percentages translate into 1 more third down conversion than the average playoff team and 2 more than the NFL average. Hence, the 3-4 more minutes in time of possession.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the bedrock on which championships are built! Hopefully, the Steelers will continue to improve in these areas offensively.

YEAH, BUT WHAT ABOUT THE DEFENSE?
Ironically, the number one ranked Steelers defense surrendered 3rd downs 40% of the time in 2007. Good enough to be ranked 20th in the NFL. That’s not good. In fact, that percentage appears to be the average every year under Dock LeBeau.

By comparison, the number one defense on 3rd downs this year was the Kansas City Chiefs who allowed opponents to convert only 31% of the time. A noticeable difference.

Don’t freak out, though. The NFL average is 39% and playoff teams average allowing 3rd down conversions 38.5% of the time. So the Steelers aren’t as bad as it initially sounds.