Football Brainiac

This offseason, Ben Roethlisberger stands to earn a substantial raise as his agent and the Steelers management begin contract negotiations. But is he really worth the big bucks?

There’s no doubt that he provides many qualities that are valuable to any franchise QB. However, I’d like to take a look at a couple stats that, when you combine them, really tell a lot about a quarterback.

Completion Percentage and Yards Per Pass Attempt are very informative statistics. Looking at these figures helps give us a good read on how a quarterback truly is doing. To quote Mike Tomlin’s mentor, Tony Dungy, he once stated,

“It doesn’t matter how often you throw, if you’re throwing and having great success … that’s a determining factor. In the long run, you’re going to have to throw the ball efficiently to win in the NFL. That’s just how the game is now.”

So how did Ben Roethlisberger perform in 2007? We all know by now that he had a tremendous year, but let’s take a look how Ben stacks up in these two categories and see if he’s really worth all that money.

COMPLETION PERCENTAGE
Ben’s 65.3% completion percentage this year was not his career best. That year was 2004 when he completed 66.4% of his passes. Considering, however, that he threw 109 more passes this year, I’d say that’s a tad more impressive, don’t you?

Over the past few years, the average NFL quarterback’s completion percentage is 60%. In other words, Ben completed 5.3% more of his passes this year than the average QB. Taking his average attempts per game this season (26.9), that equals out to 1.4 extra completions per game. We’ll low-ball it and say 1 extra completion per game.

Doesn’t sound so great does it? Just one more completion. Well, that’s why we have to figure the yards per attempt statistic alongside this because a even monkey can complete 60% of its passes if it’s just throwing swing passes to its running back all day.

YARDS PER PASS ATTEMPT
Ben’s Yards per Pass Attempt this season was 7.8 yards. Most coaches will tell you anything over 7 yards is impressive. This year alone, Ben was 1.76 yards per pass attempt better than the average NFL QB. In fact, over the past few years the average is 6.5 yards per pass. Taking his average yards per pass attempt this season (7.8), that equals out to almost 23 extra yards per game.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?

1 more completion (comp % diff) for 23 more yards (yds per pass diff) each game

What I’m getting at here is that in 2007 Ben averaged completing approximately 1 more “big play” pass per game (a completion of 20 yards or more). We’ve already established that big plays can quickly change the course of a game. Ben Roethlisberger gives the Steelers that extra advantage every game! That’s worth a big time contract in my book!

I don’t know about you, but at the end of a game, I’ll take a 23 yard pass completion to get my team closer to the end zone or in field goal range any day. It could mean the difference between a win and a loss, a division title and a wild card berth, or even a first round bye. What do you think? Is Ben worth all the money he stands to gain this offseason?

Hey kids! Have you played the new game that all the cool kids are playing? It’s fun! It’s Exciting! What is this cool new game? It’s “Pin the Blame on Bruce Arians!”

Bruce Arians’ play calling has been the topic of a lot of discussions for Steelers fans all season and it reached its peak immediately after the loss to Jacksonville in the playoffs. When discussing Arians, people fall into one of three categories:

1. Those who want Arians fired
2. Those who support him wholeheartedly
3. Those who are taking a “wait and see” approach

Behind the Steel Curtain has had a nice little debate on Arians and his playcalling. It’s worth checking out and I encourage you to do so. I’ve included some of their points, below, along with my two cents thrown in.

BTSC author “cgolden” makes a couple very good points:

• The fade passes into the end zone have got to stop
  I couldn’t agree more. I’ve never liked those plays unless you’ve got someone with some serious vertical leap at wideout which the Steelers do not have. Passing into the end zone is all fine and dandy, but Ben seems to do well with play action roll outs where two receivers are rolling with him. This gives him the option throw it to one of two different receivers or to just tuck it and run. It’s been effective as long as he’s been here. I understand that you don’t want to be predictable when calling plays in the red zone, but that’s still a hard play to defend even when you know it’s coming. The reason is that although someone like Heath Miller may be covered well, Ben can throw it low and away where only he can make the catch. Maybe the fade pass thing has been Arians’ way of trying to mix things up, but it’s just not worked this season for Pittsburgh.
• He doesn’t always play to his strengths
  What cgolden mentions about the play calling in the wild card game concurrs with Swami’s postgame analysis. The running on first downs did more to hurt the Steelers offense in the first half than help it. It put Ben in 2nd and long and 3rd and long situations which just exasperated the problem. It contributes to interceptions and sacks (which happened a lot last week).

In rebuttal, BTSC author “blitzburgh” makes some great points as well:

• The offense was vastly improved this season
  I completely agree. While by no means perfect, Arians, Ben and Ken Anderson made great strides this year which will make next year all the more exciting to watch. In other words: don’t throw the baby out with the bath water.
• Arains seems to abandon the gameplan at times just for the sake of mixing things up
  I agree with blitzburgh that sometimes his thinking seems disjointed. Sometimes it appeared that Arians and Ben had a good gameplan in those scripted first drives and then it was as if they hadn’t planned any further. Now I know this isn’t the case, but you have to wonder. It’s as if Arians out-thinks himself or something.

What I tend to look at is the overall body of work Arians has produced this season. Compare this years play calling to the the Whisenhunt years and you’ll see an slight difference. Under Whiz, the Steelers were primarily a run-first team. They ran the ball roughly as much as 60% of the time. More than any other team in 2004 and 2005. Those stats changed a bit in 2006 due to being behind so often. Look at 2007, though. Arians called designed running plays approximately 500 times this year (I didn’t count QB scrambles). Compare that to 441 pass attempts. That’s a Run/Pass ratio of 53% to 47% which is much more balanced.

But check this out. When you break it down, “cgolden” makes a great case that the Steelers propensity to run on first down makes them very predictable. Over the course of the season, the Steelers ran the ball on 1st down 60% of the time! On 2nd down, the run percentage drops to 53%. And finally, on 3rd down the Steelers ran the ball a mere 24% of the time. In other words, we usually run the ball on 1st down, pass on 3rd, and it’s a toss up on 2nd. If Arians wants to mix something up, perhaps this is where he should start!

In conclusion, I tend to agree with “blitzburgh”. We have to remember that this season, this offense was a work in progress - AND IT STILL LOOKED PRETTY DARN GOOD! Arians collaborated with Ben on everything from the new playbook’s terminology to the plays they were to run that week. They’re both learning a lot. Arians should stay on at least another year. Let’s see what he’s learned about this football team in 2007 and what adjustments he has in store for 2008 before bringing the hammer down.

What a long, strange trip it’s been this year, huh? The 2007 season is officially over. The Steelers have been eliminated from the playoffs. I finally picked myself up out of my pit of despair and put away my vintage Terrible Towel (which I’ve had since 1978 by the way). In future posts, we’ll be commenting and speculating on 2008 happenings, but for now, it’s time to reflect on the season that was.

WHAT WORKED

• Mike Tomlin
  Whatever you want to say about this year, it’s hard to deny that Mike Tomlin did a great job in his first season as head coach. There’s always something people won’t like about him (and any other coach not named Chuck Noll), but the fact remains, he helped the Steelers win their first division title in three years as a rookie coach. That’s gotta stand for something. He may not be as emotional as some would like him to be, but what he does do is stress execution and he never makes excuses. He’s a very level-headed guy who, I think, will bring at least on more title to Pittsburgh in the years to come (and hopefully a lot more). Next week, we’ll be examining Mike Tomlin more closely. Stay tuned.
• The First Half of the Season
  This team looked pretty amazing early on. The offense moved the ball at will, the running game was effective. Ben was sharp. The defense was stifling. Even special teams got a touchdown! Not to say they didn’t have a bad game here and there (Arizona and Denver for example), but the early 2007 Steelers looked like an “elite” team (God, I hate that word). Everything culminated on the November 5th drubbing of the Baltimore Ravens in front of a national audience and the 75th Anniversary Steelers. It was the best of times, wasn’t it? Unfortunately, it all kinda went downhill from there.
• Ben Roethlisberger
  Football Brainiac has been saying all season that we were watching a superstar QB mature before our very eyes and that’s exactly what was happening. If not for Tom Brady’s otherworldly performance this season, I have to argue that Ben would have been a legitimate candidate for league MVP. He carried this team all season long. The Steelers 3rd Down conversion percentage this year was 47% - third best in the league. By the way, Pittsburgh almost always passed on 3rd Down this year, so that is directly related Ben. His QB rating was a whopping 104.1. His completion percentage was 65.3% (a career best) and his average yards per pas was over 7! As long as this guy stays healthy, the Steelers will never be out of a game (as illustrated in the wild card game).
• Hines Ward
  It may not have been one of his best seasons statistically, but Ward proved to be Mr. Reliable once again this year. He lead the team in receptions (71) and caught 7 TD passes despite missing two games. He was a clutch receiver for Ben all season long and he proved that in both games against the Bengals, the Monday-nighter against Miami and the wild card game against Jacksonville. Hines has proven once again that he is an indispensable part of this offense.
• Heath Miller
  His best season to date. Miller really showed us this year why he was worth a number one draft choice. Honestly, you gotta love this guy! He exudes the mentality and the toughness that we’ve come to expect from a Steelers receiver. He’s not afraid to take a shot and he’s done a very good job run blocking. The more Heath is incorporated into the offense, the better Ben and the running game will look.
• Daniel Sepulveda
  Many people were critical of the Steelers decision to draft Sepulveda in the fourth round, but I’ve been nothing but impressed with this guy. His average was only 42.4, but that figure is a bit misleading because he had to punt from between the 40 yard lines a lot of times. He kicked the ball inside the 20 yard line 37 of 68 times this season. That’s a phenomenal 55% of the time! And, amazingly, he only had 2 touchbacks all season! He pinned the Dolphins deep in their own territory throughout the Monday night game which gave the Steelers better field position all night and heavily contributed to the final scoring drive. In a game where field position is so important, I’d say he’s worth the 4th round pick, wouldn’t you?
• James Harrison
  What can you say about Harrison other than, “Wow!” I know I wasn’t alone in worrying about how well he would do as a starter this year. Well, he certainly alleviated my fears and he gave me a lot of confidence in the level of play he will bring to the linebacking corps the next couple years. His Monday night performance against the Ravens was almost superhuman. The guy was everywhere! 3 forced fumbles, an interception, 9 tackles and 3.5 sacks! How good is that? I know being nominated team MVP means a lot to him and he’s not going to let this team down any time soon. I think I speak for all of us when I say we found a more than adequate replacement for Joey Porter.

WHAT DIDN’T WORK

• Kick Coverage
  Great Googly Moogly was this unit horrible! It was downright embarrassing to watch the Steelers kickoff this year. It started on the second half kickoff against Buffalo and just got worse from there. For the life of me, I’m not sure why Pittsburgh ever kicked deep again after Joshua Cribbs spanked them. The Steelers have always seemed to be sub par in this department, but never this bad. That’s coaching. Serious changes need to be made in this area. I’m usually not one to fire coaches on a whim. I’d like to think I take more of a patient approach, but honestly, I have to blame special teams coach Bob Ligashesky for this. He’s gotta go!
• QB Pressure
  Late in the season the Steelers just didn’t get to the quarterback. I, for one, do not put a whole lot of stock in sacks as much as I do in pressure and hurries. While these elements usually lead to sacks anyway, more importantly, they get to the QB’s head and force him to alter his thinking and his throwing. The problem was, the Steelers defense wasn’t pressuring anyone and certainly wasn’t hurrying them. For all of the media attention to how Pittsburgh couldn’t stop the run without Aaron Smith, I feel this was where his absence hurt the defense the most. Smith was dominating offensive lineman off the ball and disrupting pass plays all the time. He’s been doing it for years. I guess you just don’t know what you got til it’s gone, huh?
• The Offensive Line
  Okay, we’ve all beat this point to death, so I’ll be brief. It might be that Ben is holding the ball longer in an attempt to not throw interceptions or the line just stinks or a combination of the two. Either way, the fact remains that this line did not consistently win the battle in the trenches. And this didn’t just happen overnight. Last year, with the great Russ Grimm as O-Line coach, the Steelers line was lackluster. What has caused this decline in performance? Other than Grimm’s departure (which I just ruled out as an excuse), the only changes since their Super Bowl season is the loss of two players: Bettis and Hartings. Could it be that Bettis’ running style masked a lot of issues with this line? He was able to push the pile so much without a whole lot of help from the line. Maybe they weren’t that powerful to begin with and now it’s been exposed. And we all know how valuable Hartings was to this line, but in his last couple years, his knees couldn’t hold out. Last year, he did well, but not as good in seasons past. Just something to think about.
• Steely McBeam
  I don’t think I need to write anything else, do I?

WHAT I’D LIKE TO SEE MORE OF

• Lamarr Woodley
  There’s no doubt about it. This kid is going to be the next great Steelers linebacker. His performance against the Jaguars in the wild card game was beyond his years. I’m sure we’ll be getting to this subject more as we get closer to the ‘08 season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers let Haggans go. Woodley has proven he can start with the amount of disruption he causes.
• Opportunistic Defensive Play
  Where did all the takeaways go this year? Forcing turnovers is infectious. You see it all the time. When a team can get into a quarterback’s head, he can’t help but throw picks. When they’re able to punch the ball out of a running back’s grasp, all of the backs suddenly seem to have fumbilitis. The defense has got to gang tackle and strip the ball more often. The secondary has got to catch the ball when they have an opportunity to make a play.
• A Physical Running Game
  I’m not suggesting the Steelers go back to strictly power running all day, but it might be a season or two before this line gets completely solidified. A stronger, more physical running back could help get those short yards or keep the clock moving when needed. He doesn’t have to be Bettis reincarnated (although it wouldn’t hurt). Maybe someone in the Ron Dayne, T.J. Duckett mold?

What did you think about the Steelers season - Good, Bad and Ugly? Let’s hear it!