Football Brainiac

In our ongoing review of the 2007 season, Football Brainiac will be taking a look at the statistics that matter most to NFL coaches.

It goes without saying that the longer your offense has possession of the ball, two things are more likely to happen:

1. Your team has a better chance of scoring
2. The opposition has a more reduced chance of scoring

So how did the 2007 Steelers fare when it comes to controlling the clock? We’re going to take a look at two different categories when it comes to possession. The first is time of possession (duh) and the second is 3rd down conversion percentage.

TIME OF POSSESSION
The 2007 Steelers offense average time of possession in a game was 33:18. That was good enough to be the best in the NFL this year!

In fact, the average among the other playoff teams this year was only 30:56. So the Steelers were able to hold on to the ball almost 3 minutes more than this year’s postseason contenders. What’s more impressive is that the league average was 29:01. That over 4 minutes more!

There’s only one way you’re able to keep the ball that much longer than your opponent, though: converting on third down.

3rd DOWN CONVERSION PERCENTAGE
Something that many people may not have known this year is that Ben and the offense was good at converting 3rd Downs - really good! Pittsburgh ranked 3rd in the NFL behind Indianapolis and New England. The table below shows just how good the Steelers were this year converting on 3rd Down this year. It compares them to the previous two seasons as well as the NFL playoff teams’ average each of the past three years.

What really stands out to me is that the Steelers offense has improved dramatically in this category each year as Ben continues to mature. This year’s percentages translate into 1 more third down conversion than the average playoff team and 2 more than the NFL average. Hence, the 3-4 more minutes in time of possession.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the bedrock on which championships are built! Hopefully, the Steelers will continue to improve in these areas offensively.

YEAH, BUT WHAT ABOUT THE DEFENSE?
Ironically, the number one ranked Steelers defense surrendered 3rd downs 40% of the time in 2007. Good enough to be ranked 20th in the NFL. That’s not good. In fact, that percentage appears to be the average every year under Dock LeBeau.

By comparison, the number one defense on 3rd downs this year was the Kansas City Chiefs who allowed opponents to convert only 31% of the time. A noticeable difference.

Don’t freak out, though. The NFL average is 39% and playoff teams average allowing 3rd down conversions 38.5% of the time. So the Steelers aren’t as bad as it initially sounds.

This offseason, Ben Roethlisberger stands to earn a substantial raise as his agent and the Steelers management begin contract negotiations. But is he really worth the big bucks?

There’s no doubt that he provides many qualities that are valuable to any franchise QB. However, I’d like to take a look at a couple stats that, when you combine them, really tell a lot about a quarterback.

Completion Percentage and Yards Per Pass Attempt are very informative statistics. Looking at these figures helps give us a good read on how a quarterback truly is doing. To quote Mike Tomlin’s mentor, Tony Dungy, he once stated,

“It doesn’t matter how often you throw, if you’re throwing and having great success … that’s a determining factor. In the long run, you’re going to have to throw the ball efficiently to win in the NFL. That’s just how the game is now.”

So how did Ben Roethlisberger perform in 2007? We all know by now that he had a tremendous year, but let’s take a look how Ben stacks up in these two categories and see if he’s really worth all that money.

COMPLETION PERCENTAGE
Ben’s 65.3% completion percentage this year was not his career best. That year was 2004 when he completed 66.4% of his passes. Considering, however, that he threw 109 more passes this year, I’d say that’s a tad more impressive, don’t you?

Over the past few years, the average NFL quarterback’s completion percentage is 60%. In other words, Ben completed 5.3% more of his passes this year than the average QB. Taking his average attempts per game this season (26.9), that equals out to 1.4 extra completions per game. We’ll low-ball it and say 1 extra completion per game.

Doesn’t sound so great does it? Just one more completion. Well, that’s why we have to figure the yards per attempt statistic alongside this because a even monkey can complete 60% of its passes if it’s just throwing swing passes to its running back all day.

YARDS PER PASS ATTEMPT
Ben’s Yards per Pass Attempt this season was 7.8 yards. Most coaches will tell you anything over 7 yards is impressive. This year alone, Ben was 1.76 yards per pass attempt better than the average NFL QB. In fact, over the past few years the average is 6.5 yards per pass. Taking his average yards per pass attempt this season (7.8), that equals out to almost 23 extra yards per game.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?

1 more completion (comp % diff) for 23 more yards (yds per pass diff) each game

What I’m getting at here is that in 2007 Ben averaged completing approximately 1 more “big play” pass per game (a completion of 20 yards or more). We’ve already established that big plays can quickly change the course of a game. Ben Roethlisberger gives the Steelers that extra advantage every game! That’s worth a big time contract in my book!

I don’t know about you, but at the end of a game, I’ll take a 23 yard pass completion to get my team closer to the end zone or in field goal range any day. It could mean the difference between a win and a loss, a division title and a wild card berth, or even a first round bye. What do you think? Is Ben worth all the money he stands to gain this offseason?

In our ongoing review of the 2007 season, Football Brainiac will be taking a look at the statistics that matter most to NFL coaches.

You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to underestand how important turnovers and takeaways are in the NFL. They are another instance of big plays that can quickly change the course of a game.

Near the end of the regular season, we showed how turnovers usually equal playoff appearances. In 2007, 7 of the top 10 teams with the best turnover ratio made the playoffs.

So how did the 2007 Steelers fare in turnovers and takeaways? Let’s compare them to previous seasons as well as the standard for turnover stats for playoff teams over the past few years.

I think these stats prove why the 2006 Steelers didn’t make the playoffs, don’t you? A negative 8 turnover ratio is very rarely going to get you into the playoffs. The 2005 and 2007 Steelers were pretty much in line with the average playoff team stats, though. The only major difference is what many of us have talked about all season long - the drop in takeaways. A return to the disrupting, opportunistic style of defense is going to be necessary if this team is going to the next level.