There’s been quite a bru-ha-ha over the lack of urgency Mike Tomlin and Kevin Colbert seem to be showing on behalf of the Steelers offensive and defensive line this offseason - especially the offensive line. While it’s probably true that Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed are valuable weapons that will help the overall offensive arsenal, lots of people are worried that Big Ben will get pummeled this year since there seems to be very little attention given to improving the offensive line. A line that gave up a whopping 96 sacks over 2 years.

Riding that bandwagon as far as they could, all the “experts” have proclaimed for months that the Steelers have to protect Ben better. Specifically, what they meant was that Pittsburgh had to get an offensive lineman in the first round and they had to resign Alan Faneca.

Well, they did neither. All of this has lead me to wonder whether everyone is right and the Steelers front office is really neglecting the obvious or, perhaps, do the Steelers know something we don’t?

Let’s look at free agency. If Pittsburgh isn’t willing to plop down millions to retain Alan Faneca, who could the Steelers have acquired with marginal skill and less wear and tear for a lower price? There are plenty to choose from (still are, too). The Steelers signed Justin Hartwig who will battle for the starting Center position with Sean Mahan (last year’s OL free agent acquisition), but could also be utilized as a guard. AND THAT WAS ALL THEY DID! If the Steelers were desperate they could still pick up any number of players to play on the line. At last count, I saw 48 offensive linemen who were not picked up in free agency by other teams. They’re obviously not desperate, and besides, free agency is just not how Pittsburgh operates.

Now, let’s take a look at the draft. In the first round alone, 7 of the 22 picks before Pittsburgh were offensive linemen (and, by the way, 5 of the remaining 15 were defensive linemen). Many pundits felt that this was a particularly ripe draft for offensive linemen, but that’s a lot of “A” linemen to be taken before the Steelers even had a chance to pick. In fact, only 3 offensive linemen were taken over the next 43 picks! That’s quite a drop off, wouldn’t you say?

In my opinion, the Steelers had to know most of these guys were going to be taken before #23, and you can’t possibly think that this team will act like Cleveland did last year and trade half of their choices away for 1 lineman. This team, like or not, builds through the draft. They want as many picks as they can possibly have.

In addition, the Steelers waited until the 4th round to take an offensive lineman. This tells me that the Steelers front office does not think their offensive line is as bad as we all may have made it out to be. Could this be true?

Below is a table that shows the Steelers starting offensive line since Ben Roethlisberger took over as QB year-by-year. New starters are highlighted in yellow.

Not much of a change to this line over the years is there? 2007 saw two new lineman start (Mahan and Colon). Yes Ben was sacked more in the last two years, but the Steelers average yards per rush play improved overall. So what’s causing the sharp decline in the line’s production?

I mentioned at the end of the season that “the only major changes since their Super Bowl season is the loss of two players: Bettis and Hartings (and, yes, the addition of Colon to the starting lineup). Could it be that Bettis’ running style masked a lot of issues with this line? He was able to push the pile so much without a whole lot of help from the line. Maybe they weren’t that powerful to begin with and now it’s been exposed.”

I’m not saying the line isn’t any good, but I tend to think that perhaps their pass blocking hasn’t been all that terrific. Hence, why Ben has to constantly play on the run.

So what can Mike Tomlin and Bruce Arians do? Here’s my 2 part solution:

#1) Hopefully, with the new addition of Mendenhall, his style of running will keep opposing defenses more honest. The Steelers may not have to pass on 3rd and 3 (or shorter) as much as they did last season. Utilize him in tandem with FWP and we should see these stats improve.

#2) With this stockpile of tight ends that Pittsburgh has, couldn’t they keep one of them in to help with blocking support in obvious passing situations to help ease the pressure off of Ben?

Now that I’ve had more tiime to look and think about it, I’m just not so sure that the play of the offensive line was as bad as we all made it out to be. Sure, pass protection was abysmal, but if they do these two things, I think the offense can really keep opposing defenses on their toes.

What do you guys think? Any other suggestions? Let’s hear ‘em!

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While there may be a tad bit of justification for apparent injustices, I dare say this dribble is WAY overrated. Each team has to play 16 games. They gotta play somebody and they can’t all be the Dolphins so why don’t we stop whining and get ready to play.

At the same time, though, who you play obviously matters. Blitzburgh over at Behind the Steel Curtain makes a good point about this. The 2006 Jets are just one example given in that post. Easy shcedule = make the playoffs. I’m also reminded of last year’s Browns who were lucky enough to have .430 schedule (and, oh by the way, still missed the postseason).

To further add fuel to flame, ESPN’s John Clayton even wrote an article the other day that proves the Steelers have a doozy of a schedule. Their opponents’ winning percentage is .598. That’s apparently one of the toughest in NFL history. He also claims that playing these caliber teams can really wear a team down to the point they finally break.

And, to be honest, this very well may be the case for Pittsburgh (or any of the AFC North for that matter). Especially when you consider how the Steelers finished last year. Could they start out of the gate strong again and then just get tired about half way through the season? These are legitimate concerns, but I think the Steelers will hold up better than some fear.

In today’s NFL, if you can win all of your home games and your divisional games, you’re going to have a more significant chance of making the playoffs. If the Steelers are able to do just that and no more, their record would be 11-5. Which in most any season should get you in the playoffs. But can they do that?

Listed below were my initial thoughts when I looked at the Steelers schedule. Call it my “Preseason Prediction”, if you will. But I think it has a lot of merit. Ah, to be a football fan. This is what makes the offseason so much fun, right?

1. Houston: This is a game the Steelers should win. The Texans are getting better, but they’re not at the level Pittsburgh is at.   Win [1-0]
2. @ Cleveland: This one may be tough, but am I the only one that thinks the Browns, when faced with a tougher schedule, will fall apart under the pressure? This may not be the case by Week #2, but it just seems that Ben owns this team, doesn’t it? Win [2-0]
3. @ Philadelphia: This is a totally different team when Donovan McNabb is playing. I just don’t think the Eagles are as much of a threat as they’ve been in the past, though. They’re getting a bit long in the teeth.   Win [3-0]
4. Baltimore: We said it last season, the terror the Ravens have imposed on Pittsburgh ended last October. Too bad Steve McNair won’t be playing in this one, too!  Win [4-0]
5. @ Jacksonville: We just can’t get away from these guys can we? The Jaguars have always given the Steelers fits. There’s just some teams who have a mental & psychological edge over you. I think the Steelers will try to avenge last year’s losses, but the outcome will sadly be the same.   Loss [4-1]
6. Bye Week. Pittsburgh stands at 4-1 (gee, that sounds familiar)
7. @ Cincinnati: Without an O-Line, Chad Johnson or Chris Henry, it could be another loooong year for Carson Palmer.   Win [5-1]
8. New York Giants: Don’t get me wrong, the Giants earned that Super Bowl last year, and nothing gave me greater pleasure than seeing them upset the Pats. But I just don’t think this team will be that good in 2008.   Win [6-1]
9. @ Washington (MNF): This should be a good game, but I don’t know if Jim Zorn will have this team playing like a real winner in ‘08.   Win [7-1]
10. Indianapolis: The Steelers always play the Colts tough at home (and usually win, too). But because they will probably have two losses by now.   Loss [7-2]
11. San Diego: Two straight home games against playoff-caliber teams. The bad news here is the Chargers get to play at 4:15 instead of 1pm. I still think the Steelers win this, though.   Win [8-2]
12. Cincinnati: A third straight home game will certainly help keep our boys rested (somewhat) considering this is a Thursday nighter. A season sweep of the Bungles will put the Steelers in a good position (especially since the Patriots will probably be 11-0 by now). Win [9-2]
13. @ New England: The Steelers will have 10 days to prepare for this one. Will it be enough? I don’t think so, but it should be closer than last year’s debacle. Loss [9-3]
14. Dallas: Pittsburgh hardly ever plays the Cowboys at home. In fact, I half thought the schedule makers would have made this a Thanksgiving game (thank God they didn’t). In my opinion, the Cowboys are vastly overrated. Wade Phillips will probably end up losing his job after this season. Besides, I’d love to see Jerry Jones scowling on the sidelines at Heinz Field. Win [10-3]
15. @ Baltimore: Another season sweep of a division rival. Win [11-3]
16. @ Tennessee: I’m thinking that at this point, the Sterelers will have wrapped up the AFC North. And with losses to Indy and the Pats putting Pittsburgh out of the hunt for a bye week in the playoffs, I’d be surprised to see starters on the field. Loss [11-4]
17. Cleveland: You can’t honestly expect me to think the Browns will ever beat the Steelers, can you? Win [12-4]

So what do you think? Are the Steelers really a 12-4 team this year (no matter who they pick up in the draft)? Are the Giants, Eagles & Cowboys all as overrated as I’m making them out to be? Will the Browns fold under the pressure of a tougher schedule? And waht about the Chargers? I’d lover to hear your thoughts.

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I have been on hiatus for the last couple months because I just have a hard time getting into the whole “mock draft” stuff. I’m not knocking those who do, but I just don’t follow college football enough to know who’s good and who’s a wasted pick. I’ll leave that part up to the Mel Kipers of the world.

I want to start our 2008 blogging season with a good ol’ fashioned rant about why this year’s NFL schedule, overall, is a complete joke.

The “geniuses” who came up with this rediculously lopsided agenda have set new lows this season. The scheduling formula was supposed to be a chance to create a more fair slate of games for “lesser teams” and combine that with the draft order (worst drafts first) to give all 32 NFL teams an opportunity to reach the postseason each and every year. They have taken that idea and promptly flushed it down the toilet with common sense.

Let’s start with Monday Night Football. The original idea behind MNF is that it places both teams in the national spotlight which, in turn, increases the game’s fan base. Teams usually fall into one of two categories for MNF: 1) playoff teams and 2) teams with a large fan base.

Let’s start with playoff teams. How many of the 32 slots playing on MNF this season are playoff teams from last year? 14. Not even half! The playoff teams with the most appearances are Green Bay (3) and Pitsburgh (2). The amazing, theoretically unbeatable, and astounding New England Patriots: 1. The Super Bowl Champion New York Giants: 1. The Colts: 1. The Cowboys: 1. The only other team that has a large national fan base that didn’t make the playoffs are the Raiders (1 appearance). The Seahawks (who have won the NFC West 4 years in a row)aren’t on MNF at all.

So who is appearing in the other 19 spots on the national stage? Leading the way is the Cleveland Browns with 3 appearances. Followed by the Broncos, Eagles, Saints and Vikings (each with 2 appearances).

Now the Broncos and Eagles I can understand. These two teams have made the playoffs most of the last few years. But the 7 spots filled by Cleveland, Minnnesota and New Orleans is ludicrous. These teams have four playoff spots between them this decade and only one since 2003. It’s obvious that Cleveland is the NFL’s 2008 version of the 49ers (It wouldn’t surprise me if they end up the same way, either). And we know that Adrian Peterson and Reggie Bush are playmakers, but come on. This isn’t basketball, it’s football - a team sport!

I don’t normally look at whether a game is a prime time game like the media does to judge the challenge of a schedule. To me, Monday, Thursday and Saturday games are the biggest indicator. Why? Becuase of the amount of days the team has to prepare the following week. More games with four or five days rest make it more difficult for a team to stay at their best.

So, looking at it this way, who has the most challenging go of it in 2008? Cleveland has four of these types of games. Pittsburgh, Denver, Dallas, Philadelphia, Green Bay and New Orleans have 3. Only half of these teams actually made the playoffs last season.

Teams that had winning records last year with the fewest of these challenges include (get this) all playoff teams! The division winning Giants, Buccaneers and Seahawks (1 each) and the Patriots, Colts, Jaguars, Chargers and Titans (2 each).

I think this is outrageous that perennial winners like the Colts and Patriots and Divison winners (not to mention Super Bowl Champs) get 1 appearance.

This is NOT FAIR to the “lesser teams”. Teams like the Texans, Chiefs, even Bills will have a harder time trying to win their divisions becuase the teams that usually make the playoffs have mroe time to rest and prepare.

Does anyone else feel the way I do or is it just me?

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It goes without saying that the longer your offense has possession of the ball, two things are more likely to happen:

1. Your team has a better chance of scoring
2. The opposition has a more reduced chance of scoring

So how did the 2007 Steelers fare when it comes to controlling the clock? We’re going to take a look at two different categories when it comes to possession. The first is time of possession (duh) and the second is 3rd down conversion percentage.

TIME OF POSSESSION
The 2007 Steelers offense average time of possession in a game was 33:18. That was good enough to be the best in the NFL this year!

In fact, the average among the other playoff teams this year was only 30:56. So the Steelers were able to hold on to the ball almost 3 minutes more than this year’s postseason contenders. What’s more impressive is that the league average was 29:01. That over 4 minutes more!

There’s only one way you’re able to keep the ball that much longer than your opponent, though: converting on third down.

3rd DOWN CONVERSION PERCENTAGE
Something that many people may not have known this year is that Ben and the offense was good at converting 3rd Downs - really good! Pittsburgh ranked 3rd in the NFL behind Indianapolis and New England. The table below shows just how good the Steelers were this year converting on 3rd Down this year. It compares them to the previous two seasons as well as the NFL playoff teams’ average each of the past three years.

What really stands out to me is that the Steelers offense has improved dramatically in this category each year as Ben continues to mature. This year’s percentages translate into 1 more third down conversion than the average playoff team and 2 more than the NFL average. Hence, the 3-4 more minutes in time of possession.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the bedrock on which championships are built! Hopefully, the Steelers will continue to improve in these areas offensively.

YEAH, BUT WHAT ABOUT THE DEFENSE?
Ironically, the number one ranked Steelers defense surrendered 3rd downs 40% of the time in 2007. Good enough to be ranked 20th in the NFL. That’s not good. In fact, that percentage appears to be the average every year under Dock LeBeau.

By comparison, the number one defense on 3rd downs this year was the Kansas City Chiefs who allowed opponents to convert only 31% of the time. A noticeable difference.

Don’t freak out, though. The NFL average is 39% and playoff teams average allowing 3rd down conversions 38.5% of the time. So the Steelers aren’t as bad as it initially sounds.

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There’s no doubt that he provides many qualities that are valuable to any franchise QB. However, I’d like to take a look at a couple stats that, when you combine them, really tell a lot about a quarterback.

Completion Percentage and Yards Per Pass Attempt are very informative statistics. Looking at these figures helps give us a good read on how a quarterback truly is doing. To quote Mike Tomlin’s mentor, Tony Dungy, he once stated,

“It doesn’t matter how often you throw, if you’re throwing and having great success … that’s a determining factor. In the long run, you’re going to have to throw the ball efficiently to win in the NFL. That’s just how the game is now.”

So how did Ben Roethlisberger perform in 2007? We all know by now that he had a tremendous year, but let’s take a look how Ben stacks up in these two categories and see if he’s really worth all that money.

COMPLETION PERCENTAGE
Ben’s 65.3% completion percentage this year was not his career best. That year was 2004 when he completed 66.4% of his passes. Considering, however, that he threw 109 more passes this year, I’d say that’s a tad more impressive, don’t you?

Over the past few years, the average NFL quarterback’s completion percentage is 60%. In other words, Ben completed 5.3% more of his passes this year than the average QB. Taking his average attempts per game this season (26.9), that equals out to 1.4 extra completions per game. We’ll low-ball it and say 1 extra completion per game.

Doesn’t sound so great does it? Just one more completion. Well, that’s why we have to figure the yards per attempt statistic alongside this because a even monkey can complete 60% of its passes if it’s just throwing swing passes to its running back all day.

YARDS PER PASS ATTEMPT
Ben’s Yards per Pass Attempt this season was 7.8 yards. Most coaches will tell you anything over 7 yards is impressive. This year alone, Ben was 1.76 yards per pass attempt better than the average NFL QB. In fact, over the past few years the average is 6.5 yards per pass. Taking his average yards per pass attempt this season (7.8), that equals out to almost 23 extra yards per game.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?

1 more completion (comp % diff) for 23 more yards (yds per pass diff) each game

What I’m getting at here is that in 2007 Ben averaged completing approximately 1 more “big play” pass per game (a completion of 20 yards or more). We’ve already established that big plays can quickly change the course of a game. Ben Roethlisberger gives the Steelers that extra advantage every game! That’s worth a big time contract in my book!

I don’t know about you, but at the end of a game, I’ll take a 23 yard pass completion to get my team closer to the end zone or in field goal range any day. It could mean the difference between a win and a loss, a division title and a wild card berth, or even a first round bye. What do you think? Is Ben worth all the money he stands to gain this offseason?

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“Ya gotta read between the lines.” That’s what one of my old bosses used to say. I took it to heart this week as I listened to Mike Tomlin’s final press conference of the 2007 season. Let me tell you, he might not be very emotional, but this guy is one tough dude! Below are some of the highlights of his press conference and what he really meant by them.

(about the loss to Jacksonville) “It was an emotional game. It was a gut-wrenching defeat, but every January defeat I have experienced has been the same.”

Translation: I wanted to cry like a 10 year old girl cuz that loss really hurt. But you know what? This game is tough. You gotta be tough if want to be a champ. I’m tough. I’m a man and I’ll take it like a man.

(about going for the 2-point conversion from the 12 yard line) “Yes, I’d do it again. I throw caution to the wind. I play to win.”

Translation: I got balls the size of an elephant. I don’t care what any of you people say. I’ll b**ch-slap ya right here!

(about the call to run Ben on 3rd and six at the end of the game) “Hindsight is 20-15 sometimes. If you had it to do over, yes, you would love to do that (throw the ball) because the result of the play was not the result we were looking for.”

Translation: Hindsight is more like 31-29. Boy did I screw that call up! But you know what? I aint gonna cry over it. Cuz I’m a man’s man. I aint got time. I’m gonna take a week or two off. Eat a lot of red meat, drink some Iron City Beer, sleep with my wife and get back to work. Cuz that’s what a real man does!

(about the coaching staff) “Do we need to get better? Do we need to coach better in some areas, all areas? Absolutely.”

Translation: I’ll keep these guys around, but there’s a couple suckas that are gonna get smacked down if they don’t improve. And I’ll do it right here in front of all you people. Why? Cuz of those elephant-sized testicles of mine. That’s why!

(on the play of the offensive line) “The protection of our quarterback has to improve.”

Translation: The protection of our quarterback has to improve. What else ya want me to say?

(about the poor kick coverage) “I wasn’t interested in throwing up a red flag and saying, ‘Hey, I am worried about special teams,’ but obviously I was.”

Translation: We stunk on special teams like a 2 year old’s dirty diaper. It scared the bejeezus out of me everytime we kicked off. I didn’t want to admit it to you folks cuz, well, have I mentioned my elephant gonads?

(on his first year as coach and how the Steelers did this year) “We’re a good team. That’s what 10-6 teams are, what division champions are. We’ve got to be great. One of the things that has bugged me since Saturday night are people with great intentions saying, ‘Great start’ and ‘great year.’ I appreciate that, but I am not wired like that… There is something we are chasing here and we never will cease that chase.”

Translation: Don’t come to me with your sissy talk. I don’t wanna hear it. I want Super Bowl rings. Lots of ‘em! I’m here to chew bubble gum and kick a**. And I’m all out of bubble gum.

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You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to underestand how important turnovers and takeaways are in the NFL. They are another instance of big plays that can quickly change the course of a game.

Near the end of the regular season, we showed how turnovers usually equal playoff appearances. In 2007, 7 of the top 10 teams with the best turnover ratio made the playoffs.

So how did the 2007 Steelers fare in turnovers and takeaways? Let’s compare them to previous seasons as well as the standard for turnover stats for playoff teams over the past few years.

	PIT 2005	PIT 2006	PIT 2007	NFL PLAYOFF AVG
Turnovers/Takeaways	+7	-8	+3	+7
Fumbles/Lost	22/9	27/14	21/8	22/11
Interceptions	14	23	14	14

I think these stats prove why the 2006 Steelers didn’t make the playoffs, don’t you? A negative 8 turnover ratio is very rarely going to get you into the playoffs. The 2005 and 2007 Steelers were pretty much in line with the average playoff team stats, though. The only major difference is what many of us have talked about all season long - the drop in takeaways. A return to the disrupting, opportunistic style of defense is going to be necessary if this team is going to the next level.

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