Football Brainiac

In our ongoing review of the 2007 season, Football Brainiac will be taking a look at the statistics that matter most to NFL coaches.

You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to underestand how important turnovers and takeaways are in the NFL. They are another instance of big plays that can quickly change the course of a game.

Near the end of the regular season, we showed how turnovers usually equal playoff appearances. In 2007, 7 of the top 10 teams with the best turnover ratio made the playoffs.

So how did the 2007 Steelers fare in turnovers and takeaways? Let’s compare them to previous seasons as well as the standard for turnover stats for playoff teams over the past few years.

I think these stats prove why the 2006 Steelers didn’t make the playoffs, don’t you? A negative 8 turnover ratio is very rarely going to get you into the playoffs. The 2005 and 2007 Steelers were pretty much in line with the average playoff team stats, though. The only major difference is what many of us have talked about all season long - the drop in takeaways. A return to the disrupting, opportunistic style of defense is going to be necessary if this team is going to the next level.

In our ongoing review of the 2007 season, Football Brainiac will be taking a look at the statistics that matter most to NFL coaches.

Big plays are very important, game-breaking instances that can quickly change the course of a football game. The bigger the chunks of yardage a team can gain, the fewer chances there are to mess up on a long drive. Most NFL coaches agree that big plays can be determined as a run of 12 yards or more or a reception that gains 20 yards or more. So how did the 2007 Steelers do in the big play category? And how do they compare to previous seasons?

Total “Big Play” Rushes: 36 (1 for every 15 carries)

• Willie Parker: 22 (1 for every 15 carries)
• Najeh Devenport: 8 (1 for every 13 carries)
• Ben Roethlisberger: 4 (1 for every 9 carries)
• Cedrick Wilson: 2 (1 every carry)
• Carey Davis: 1 (1 for every 17 carries)

Willie Parker rushed for 22 “big plays” in 2007 in only 15 games. Compare that to 2006 where Willie, in 16 games, had 16 more carries and gained 178 more yards. But he only had 25 “big plays” of 12 yards or more last year. So this season should be considered an improvement over last season for FWP.

Total “Big Play” Passes: 39 (1 for every 10 pass attempts)
Big Ben improved in many areas this season: TDs, yards per completion and completion percentage. He also improved in the “Big Play” area as well. In 2006, Ben completed a 20 yard or more pass once in every 11 throws. In 2005, it was almost 1 for every 12. I think you can see that if this trend continues, Ben will really be able to change the face of a game even quicker than he is now.

Total “Big Play” Rushes Allowed: 23 (1 for every 15 carries)

• 1st 9 Games: 5 (1 for every 35 carries)
• Last 7 Games: 18 (1 for every 10 carries)

It’s no secret that the 2007 Steelers defense fizzled out by the end of the season. The big play category illustrates that perfectly. Big play runs almost quadrupled in the second half of the season. This is definitely worse than previous years. The 2006 defense surrendered 12 big runs and the Super Bowl team of ‘05 only gave up 14.

Total “Big Play” Passes Allowed: 28 (1 for every 19 pass attempts)

• 1st 9 Games: 11 (1 for every 26 pass attempts)
• Last 7 Games: 17 (1 for every 14 pass attempts)

The same defensive short circuit can be seen in the pass defense as well. There is good news, however. The 2007 Steelers pass defense, compared to the 2006 squad, allowed 49! That’s 21 more big plays than this season. That obviously contributed to the 8-8 record, methinks. And, by the way, the 2005 team surrendered 38!

As far as big plays go, then, we can see that the offense is improving and, actually, so is the pass defense. The run defense, though, needs to be sured up. Hopefully, with a healthy Aaron Smith, the Steelers run D will return to form next year.

Hey kids! Have you played the new game that all the cool kids are playing? It’s fun! It’s Exciting! What is this cool new game? It’s “Pin the Blame on Bruce Arians!”

Bruce Arians’ play calling has been the topic of a lot of discussions for Steelers fans all season and it reached its peak immediately after the loss to Jacksonville in the playoffs. When discussing Arians, people fall into one of three categories:

1. Those who want Arians fired
2. Those who support him wholeheartedly
3. Those who are taking a “wait and see” approach

Behind the Steel Curtain has had a nice little debate on Arians and his playcalling. It’s worth checking out and I encourage you to do so. I’ve included some of their points, below, along with my two cents thrown in.

BTSC author “cgolden” makes a couple very good points:

• The fade passes into the end zone have got to stop
  I couldn’t agree more. I’ve never liked those plays unless you’ve got someone with some serious vertical leap at wideout which the Steelers do not have. Passing into the end zone is all fine and dandy, but Ben seems to do well with play action roll outs where two receivers are rolling with him. This gives him the option throw it to one of two different receivers or to just tuck it and run. It’s been effective as long as he’s been here. I understand that you don’t want to be predictable when calling plays in the red zone, but that’s still a hard play to defend even when you know it’s coming. The reason is that although someone like Heath Miller may be covered well, Ben can throw it low and away where only he can make the catch. Maybe the fade pass thing has been Arians’ way of trying to mix things up, but it’s just not worked this season for Pittsburgh.
• He doesn’t always play to his strengths
  What cgolden mentions about the play calling in the wild card game concurrs with Swami’s postgame analysis. The running on first downs did more to hurt the Steelers offense in the first half than help it. It put Ben in 2nd and long and 3rd and long situations which just exasperated the problem. It contributes to interceptions and sacks (which happened a lot last week).

In rebuttal, BTSC author “blitzburgh” makes some great points as well:

• The offense was vastly improved this season
  I completely agree. While by no means perfect, Arians, Ben and Ken Anderson made great strides this year which will make next year all the more exciting to watch. In other words: don’t throw the baby out with the bath water.
• Arains seems to abandon the gameplan at times just for the sake of mixing things up
  I agree with blitzburgh that sometimes his thinking seems disjointed. Sometimes it appeared that Arians and Ben had a good gameplan in those scripted first drives and then it was as if they hadn’t planned any further. Now I know this isn’t the case, but you have to wonder. It’s as if Arians out-thinks himself or something.

What I tend to look at is the overall body of work Arians has produced this season. Compare this years play calling to the the Whisenhunt years and you’ll see an slight difference. Under Whiz, the Steelers were primarily a run-first team. They ran the ball roughly as much as 60% of the time. More than any other team in 2004 and 2005. Those stats changed a bit in 2006 due to being behind so often. Look at 2007, though. Arians called designed running plays approximately 500 times this year (I didn’t count QB scrambles). Compare that to 441 pass attempts. That’s a Run/Pass ratio of 53% to 47% which is much more balanced.

But check this out. When you break it down, “cgolden” makes a great case that the Steelers propensity to run on first down makes them very predictable. Over the course of the season, the Steelers ran the ball on 1st down 60% of the time! On 2nd down, the run percentage drops to 53%. And finally, on 3rd down the Steelers ran the ball a mere 24% of the time. In other words, we usually run the ball on 1st down, pass on 3rd, and it’s a toss up on 2nd. If Arians wants to mix something up, perhaps this is where he should start!

In conclusion, I tend to agree with “blitzburgh”. We have to remember that this season, this offense was a work in progress - AND IT STILL LOOKED PRETTY DARN GOOD! Arians collaborated with Ben on everything from the new playbook’s terminology to the plays they were to run that week. They’re both learning a lot. Arians should stay on at least another year. Let’s see what he’s learned about this football team in 2007 and what adjustments he has in store for 2008 before bringing the hammer down.